Robotic harvesters may be more elusive than we think
The future is often more like today than we hope it will be. We want the flying car, but we get a rusting SUV in the driveway.
I asked the group this question a couple of days ago, “Which option below will be the surest, iron-clad lock outcome for the fresh produce industry 10 years from now?”
After 97 votes and five days of voting left in the poll, the answers were:
Sustainable packs dominate: 24%
More genetically engineered crops: 12%
Big retailers are getting bigger: 18%
Harvest automation makes leaps: 46%
There is not much confidence in the group about the future of genetically engineered crops, at least compared with the other poll options.
Sustainable packaging made a strong second-place showing, and I think that level of confidence is about right.
Members backed the idea that harvest automation will make impressive strides in the next 10 years, perhaps because there have been many headlines in recent years about investment in robotic pickers of apples, strawberries, and other crops.
I asked our AI research assistant Claude to speak his mind about the question. Here is the exchange:
TK: What is the level of harvest automation now in specialty crop agriculture? Will harvest automation make big strides in the next decade?
Claude: There are some ongoing developments in automating the harvesting of specialty crops like fruits and vegetables, but widespread adoption is still limited due to the technological challenges involved. Here are a few key points about the current state of harvest automation for specialty crops:
Harvesting robots and autonomous vehicles are being researched and tested for selective harvesting of specialty crops. However, most systems are still in early prototyping or small-scale pilot testing stages. Commercial availability is still very limited.
Key challenges for specialty crop harvesting robots include the need for advanced AI and computer vision to identify ripe produce, gently manipulate delicate fruits and vegetables, and navigate complex plant structures and environments. This is much more difficult than automating grain harvesting.
Some simpler automated harvesting solutions like mechanical berry pickers, grape harvesters, and fruit picking platforms are commercially available but have seen minimal adoption. Cost, reliability issues, and limited capabilities have curtailed widespread use.
Labor intensive hand-harvesting is still the predominant method for most specialty crops. Rising labor costs and labor shortages are driving more interest in automation, but technology is still playing catch-up.
In the next 5-10 years, we may see more rollout of basic automated harvesters for some crops like berries and tree fruits. However, fully automated end-to-end specialty crop harvesting likely remains over a decade away for most produce. Gradual increases in automation assistance will continue.
In summary, specialty crop harvesting automation is steadily evolving but still in early stages. We can expect modest gains in adoption of basic automation in the next decade, but major technological breakthroughs will be needed for more significant disruption of manual labor practices. The economics, crop characteristics, and required flexibility will limit the pace of change.
Our optimism about harvest automation may be misplaced. The ever-elusive rainbow end of robotic pickers is still more than a decade away, if that close.
In my view, one sure bet in these poll options is the fact that big grocery retailers will get bigger. Here is a thought from Claude on retail grocery concentration:
TK: Will U.S. grocery retail concentration increase in the next 10 years?
Claude: Here are some key considerations regarding the future of U.S. grocery retail concentration over the next decade:
Grocery retail is already highly concentrated in the U.S., with top chains like Kroger, Albertsons, and Publix controlling a large portion of the market. However, there is still room for further consolidation.
Experts project the top 10 U.S. grocery retailers could control over 75% of grocery sales by 2025, compared to about 66% today. Continued mergers and acquisitions are likely.
Independent grocers and smaller chains will continue facing intense competitive pressure from giant chains leveraging economies of scale. This could accelerate consolidation.
However, antitrust scrutiny may pose some limits on mergers, especially larger deals. FTC is likely to review implications for competition and consumer prices.
Grocery e-commerce and delivery is disrupting the industry. Large chains are investing significantly in digital, which could help them absorb more market share.
Hard discount grocery chains like Aldi and Lidl have growth potential to disrupt current leaders, but unlikely to significantly alter overall consolidation.
Consumer preferences for fresh, local, and specialty food could counterbalance some consolidation, buoying smaller niche grocers. But overall share is small.
Overall, experts predict the largest grocery retailers will continue to increase their market dominance over the next 10 years through mergers, acquisitions, and e-commerce scale. But there are some mitigating factors that could limit runaway consolidation. Smaller grocers will face growing pressure in an increasingly concentrated landscape.
Finally, here is a poll for members: