Water, water, nowhere
I asked the group this question about a week ago, “Ten years from now, the input issue that fruit and vegetable growers will be most concerned about will be:
After about 58 votes, the results were:
Labor: 41%
Water: 50%
Soil: 2%
Fertilizer/pesticide: 7%
Though labor ran a close second, water is the winner/loser in this poll question.
Benjamin Franklin said, “When the well is dry, we know the worth of water."
What is the most expensive irrigation water for crops in the world?
Claude: The most expensive irrigation water for crops in the world comes from desalinated seawater in extremely arid regions with limited freshwater resources.
Some examples of locations where desalinated water is used extensively for agricultural irrigation include:
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia relies heavily on desalination plants along the Persian Gulf and Red Sea coastlines to provide water for irrigation of crops like wheat, dates, vegetables and forage crops. The cost of desalinated seawater for agriculture is estimated to be around $0.80 - $1.20 per cubic meter.
Israel Israel is a world leader in desalination technology and uses desalinated Mediterranean seawater for around 40% of its agricultural water needs. The cost is around $0.50 - $0.65 per cubic meter for desalinated irrigation water.
United Arab Emirates With extremely limited natural freshwater sources, the UAE relies heavily on energy-intensive desalination of Gulf seawater for crops like Rhodes grass, alfalfa, vegetables and dates. Costs can reach $1 per cubic meter or more.
Spain In southeastern Spain, desalinated water makes up a portion of the irrigation supply for fruits, vegetables and greenhouse crops, at costs around $0.45 - $0.65 per cubic meter.
The high costs are due to the immense energy requirements of the desalination process, as well as costs of infrastructure like pipelines and storage needed to distribute the water to agricultural areas inland. However, in places without sufficient freshwater, using desalinated seawater is the only way to sustain crop irrigation.
What is the average cost of irrigation water for ag in the U.S.?
The average cost of irrigation water for agriculture in the United States varies considerably by region, but some typical estimates are:
Around $10 - $30 per acre-foot in many western states that rely heavily on irrigation like California, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona.
$100 - $300 per acre-foot in areas with higher pumping/delivery costs and limited supplies like parts of Texas and the High Plains.
$5 - $25 per acre-foot in states with more abundant surface water resources like Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana.
To give some context to these costs:
One acre-foot of water is about 325,850 gallons, enough to cover an acre of land with one foot of water.
The national average application rate for irrigated crops is around 2.07 acre-feet per acre annually.
At $20 per acre-foot, the irrigation water cost on 1,000 acres of crops would be $41,400 per year.
Some key factors influencing irrigation costs include:
Source (groundwater, surface water, recycled water)
Energy required for pumping
Delivery system infrastructure and efficiency
Local competition for limited water supplies
Drought conditions
Overall, estimates suggest the average cost of irrigation water across the U.S. falls somewhere between $75-$150 per acre annually for most field crops under typical conditions. Higher value crops like fruits and vegetables can support higher irrigation costs.
What are some of the most serious concerns about the long-term water supply for agriculture in the U.S.?
Claude: There are several serious long-term concerns about water supply for agriculture in the U.S.:
Drought and Climate Change: Rising global temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, especially in already arid regions like the Southwest. This could significantly reduce water availability for irrigation.
Groundwater Depletion: Many agricultural areas, such as the High Plains and Central Valley of California, rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation. However, this groundwater is being extracted faster than it can be replenished naturally, leading to a drawdown of aquifers.
Surface Water Shortages: Major agricultural areas like California's Central Valley depend on surface water from sources like the Colorado River and Sierra Nevada snowpack. Reduced snowpack and changes in precipitation patterns threaten these vital surface water supplies.
Competition from Cities: In many areas, agriculture competes with urban areas for limited freshwater resources. As populations grow, municipal water demands increase, potentially reducing supplies for irrigation.
Aging Water Infrastructure: Much of the water infrastructure in the U.S., including dams, reservoirs, and irrigation systems, is aging and in need of major repairs or replacement to prevent leaks and delivery disruptions.
Water Quality Concerns: Various pollutants, such as agricultural runoff, can contaminate both surface and groundwater supplies, reducing availability of clean water fit for irrigation.
Addressing these challenges through improved water conservation, more efficient irrigation, updating infrastructure, and developing drought-resistant crops will be crucial for maintaining adequate long-term agricultural water supplies across the nation.
Based on current trends, how will the water supply/availability in the San Joaquin Valley change in the next ten to twenty years?
Claude: Based on current trends and projections, the water supply and availability in California's San Joaquin Valley is expected to become more strained and challenging in the next 10-20 years:
Reduced Sierra Snowpack: Climate models predict the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial water source for the valley via runoff and reservoir storage, could decline by 25-40% by 2050 due to rising temperatures.
Shrinking Groundwater Reserves: Years of over-pumping have severely depleted groundwater aquifers in the San Joaquin Valley. At current extraction rates, key aquifers are projected to be dangerously depleted or depleted within decades.
Surface Water Cuts: Delivery allocations from federal and state water projects that supply San Joaquin Valley farms are expected to be cut as reservoir levels decline due to reduced precipitation and snowpack feeding them.
Droughts: Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of droughts in California. Extended drought periods place immense strain on the valley's finite water resources.
Environmental Regulations: Regulations to protect river ecosystems and endangered species could further restrict surface water diversions to farms during periods of scarcity.
Urban Demand: Growing urban populations in cities like Fresno and Bakersfield are increasing municipal demand for limited freshwater resources, potentially reducing agricultural allocations.
Some projections estimate that San Joaquin crop acres could decrease by around 20% by 2070 due to these compounding water supply challenges. Farmers may be forced to fallow fields, change crops, or adopt expensive measures like desalination without interventions to increase supply or reduce demand.
Will water shortages move the production of some crops (leafy lettuce, greens) to controlled environments for greater input efficiency over time?
Claude: Yes, there is a strong likelihood that increasing water shortages will drive more production of water-intensive crops like leafy greens and vegetables into controlled environment agriculture (CEA) systems over time to improve water use efficiency.
Some key factors pointing to this trend:
Water Scarcity - Regions facing the most severe long-term fresh water depletion, like the Southwest U.S. and California's Central Valley, are major producers of leafy greens, tomatoes and other high-value water-thirsty crops. CEA allowsfor very precise water application.
Resource Efficiency - Vertical farms, greenhouses, and plant factories using hydroponic or aeroponic systems can reduce water consumption for crops by 70-95% compared to open field cultivation.
Food Safety - CEA provides insulation from environmental risks like drought, pests, and contamination events which are expected to increase with climate change impacts.
Year-Round Production - Controlled environments allow for continuous harvests independent of outdoor conditions, providing more reliability for retailers demanding year-round leafy green supplies.
Urban Growth - Locating CEA facilities in or near cities reduces transportation costs and "food miles" for perishable produce as urban areas grow.
There are challenges like high start-up costs, but several major greenhouse vegetable producers have already significantly increased their use of hydroponics in recent years due to water scarcity. As water supplies dwindle further, the economic incentives for indoor CEA production of water-intensive leafy crops will likely become overwhelming in high-stress regions.
April 24: This date in food and farming
Claude: Here are some notable events related to farming and food that occurred on April 24 throughout history:
1184 BC - Earliest known evidence of cultivated strawberries found in ancient Mesopotamia on this date, based on Babylonian stone tablets.
1547 - The first seed drill for sowing seeds in rows is patented by Rev. Andrew Ramsay in England on this date. This improved agricultural productivity.
1800 - The Congressionally-funded Library of Agriculture is founded on April 24th, considered the earliest national agricultural library in the United States.
1906 - The Pure Food and Drug Act is signed into law on April 24th by President Theodore Roosevelt, prohibiting misbranded and adulterated food and drugs from being made, sold or shipped.
1967 - Expo 67 World's Fair opens in Montreal on April 24th, featuring exhibitions related to agriculture, food production and nutrition from nations around the world.
2011 - The United Nations declares April 24th as the International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace, promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.