U.S. fresh produce exports to Canada continue to lag
How long will the boycott of American goods last for Canadians?
A recent poll finds that 75% of Canadians believe the boycott will end “eventually.” Forty-seven percent of Canadians say it will end after Trump’s presidency, and 16% say it will outlast the Trump presidency.
USDA export numbers are now available for May, and sales to Canada continue to underwhelm. I asked Claude to compare May 2025 numbers with those of a year ago and 2023.
Claude: The data shows some interesting trends in U.S. fresh produce exports to Canada for May 2025:
Overall Performance: Total exports declined 15% from May 2024 ($437.9 million to $372.6 million) but remained relatively close to May 2023 levels ($379.6 million).
Key Winners: Berries emerged as the clear winner, becoming the top export category at $96 million (+12% vs 2024, +24% vs 2023). Other strong performers included peppers and potatoes.
Major Declines: Several commodities saw significant drops from 2024 levels, including tomatoes (-63%), mushrooms (-47%), garlic (-48%), and cherries (-45%). The cherry decline is particularly notable given the exceptional 2024 performance.
The data shows some interesting trends in U.S. fresh produce exports to Canada for May 2025:
Overall Performance: Total exports declined 15% from May 2024 ($437.9 million to $372.6 million) but remained relatively close to May 2023 levels ($379.6 million).
Key Winners: Berries emerged as the clear winner, becoming the top export category at $96 million (+12% vs 2024, +24% vs 2023). Other strong performers included peppers and potatoes.
Major Declines: Several commodities saw significant drops from 2024 levels, including tomatoes (-63%), mushrooms (-47%), garlic (-48%), and cherries (-45%). The cherry decline is particularly notable given the exceptional 2024 performance.
The berry sector's consistent growth stands out as a bright spot in an otherwise contracting market.
U.S. Fresh Produce Exports to Canada: May 2025 vs 2024 vs 2023
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data (Values in Thousands of Dollars)
Total Export Values
May 2025: $372,556 thousand
May 2024: $437,900 thousand
May 2023: $379,558 thousand
Year-over-Year Changes:
2025 vs 2024: -15% decline (-$65,344 thousand)
2025 vs 2023: -2% decline (-$7,002 thousand)
Top 10 Commodities by 2025 Export Value
1. Berries, Fresh
2025: $96,017 thousand
2024: $85,672 thousand (+12%)
2023: $77,259 thousand (+24%)
Status: Strong growth - Only major commodity showing consistent increases
2. Other Vegetables, Fresh
2025: $47,192 thousand
2024: $48,226 thousand (-2%)
2023: $46,409 thousand (+2%)
Status: Relatively stable
3. Lettuce, Fresh
2025: $46,566 thousand
2024: $63,882 thousand (-27%)
2023: $53,859 thousand (-14%)
Status: Significant decline from 2024 peak
4. Cherries, Fresh
2025: $23,672 thousand
2024: $42,662 thousand (-45%)
2023: $18,980 thousand (+25%)
Status: Major volatility - 2024 was exceptional year
5. Cauliflower, Fresh
2025: $20,012 thousand
2024: $22,521 thousand (-11%)
2023: $23,016 thousand (-13%)
Status: Gradual decline trend
6. Apples, Fresh
2025: $17,189 thousand
2024: $18,236 thousand (-6%)
2023: $16,103 thousand (+7%)
Status: Moderate fluctuation
7. Onions/Shallots, Fresh
2025: $15,611 thousand
2024: $26,567 thousand (-41%)
2023: $14,565 thousand (+7%)
Status: Sharp decline from 2024 spike
8. Melons, Fresh
2025: $13,067 thousand
2024: $20,417 thousand (-36%)
2023: $18,709 thousand (-30%)
Status: Consistent decline
9. Carrots, Fresh
2025: $12,515 thousand
2024: $14,440 thousand (-13%)
2023: $12,415 thousand (+1%)
Status: Returning to 2023 levels
10. Sweet Corn, Fresh
2025: $11,515 thousand
2024: $13,471 thousand (-15%)
2023: $14,822 thousand (-22%)
Status: Declining trend
Notable Performance Categories
Strong Performers (Growth vs both years)
Berries: +12% vs 2024, +24% vs 2023
Peppers: +11% vs 2024, +22% vs 2023
Potatoes: +17% vs 2024, -23% vs 2023
Grapes: +25% vs 2024, +258% vs 2023
Major Declines (>30% drop from 2024)
Tomatoes: -63% vs 2024 ($12,181 → $4,547)
Mushrooms: -47% vs 2024 ($968 → $515)
Garlic: -48% vs 2024 ($951 → $494)
Cherries: -45% vs 2024 ($42,662 → $23,672)
Onions/Shallots: -41% vs 2024 ($26,567 → $15,611)
Pears: -37% vs 2024 ($852 → $532)
Melons: -36% vs 2024 ($20,417 → $13,067)
Citrus Performance
Oranges & Tangerines: -28% vs 2024, -42% vs 2023
Lemons & Limes: +11% vs 2024, +10% vs 2023
Grapefruit: -24% vs 2024, -35% vs 2023
Key Insights
Overall Market Contraction: Total exports declined 15% from 2024's peak but remain close to 2023 levels
Berry Boom: Berries are the standout success story, becoming the top export category
Seasonal Volatility: Many commodities show high year-to-year variation, particularly stone fruits and vegetables
Citrus Mixed: Lemons/limes performing well while oranges and grapefruit declining
Traditional Staples Struggling: Lettuce, tomatoes, and other traditional high-volume exports showing weakness