The incredible shrinking farm labor supply

And Walmart poll results

The Packer reports that the Department of Labor is working to speed up the processing of H-2A applications.

At least there is recognition by the Trump administration that most Americans won’t do the difficult work of hand-harvesting crops.

From the story:

“Most of us have a significant agriculture industry in our states, and those migrant workers who come in are just so important,” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said. “I would love for Americans to want to do those jobs. I can just tell you, none of the Americans I know want to do some of these jobs.”

I asked AI blinking cursor Claude about the outlook for farm labor…

Are there current reports of farm worker shortages?

Claude: Yes, there are extensive current reports documenting significant farm worker shortages across the United States. The situation is both ongoing and worsening according to recent data and industry reports.

Current Scale of the Shortage

In 2024, the U.S. agricultural industry needed approximately 2.4 million more farm workers, and this labor gap is expected to grow in 2025. This represents a massive shortfall in the agricultural workforce.

Economic and Trade Impacts

Lack of access to reliable and affordable farm labor is causing U.S. farm operators to lose their competitive advantage in the global market. 2024 represented the largest trade deficit recorded for the U.S. ag sector. The highest increases in imports included labor-intensive farm commodities.

Structural Changes in Labor Markets

In inflation-adjusted terms, real farm wages have been increasing for many years, and farmworkers have become less migratory than they were in the 1990s. As a result, the incidence of labor shortages during labor-intensive seasons like harvest increased during the 2000s.

Systemic Crisis Recognition

The United States lost 141,733 farms over the course of five years, in part due to a broken workforce system that has led to a worker shortage. American agriculture faces a critical shortage of labor that harms annual harvests, animal agriculture production and processing facilities. This damages American competitiveness and overall food security.

Food Production Consequences

The United States is facing a significant farm labor shortage. As a result, farmers struggle to find workers to grow and harvest crops. This crisis can lead to higher prices and less food in stores. The shortage also means crops might be left unharvested, leading to food waste.

Rising Labor Costs

Changes to farm labor legislation including minimum wage, AEWR and H-2A, and overtime mean agricultural labor has never been more expensive for farmers.

The reports consistently show that farm worker shortages are not just a future concern but a current crisis affecting food production, farm viability, and U.S. agricultural competitiveness. The shortage is driving both increased automation efforts and policy discussions around agricultural labor reform, including H-2A visa program modifications.

With stricter immigration enforcement, will the ag labor situation continue to deteriorate?

Claude: Based on current trends and policy developments, the agricultural labor situation is likely to face significant challenges with stricter immigration enforcement, though the full impact remains uncertain due to evolving policies.

Current Labor Dependency

The agricultural sector's heavy reliance on immigrant labor makes it particularly vulnerable to enforcement changes. An estimated 40-50% of hired crop farm workers in the U.S. have no work authorization, with over 25% of agricultural workers and 54.3% of graders and sorters of agricultural products being immigrants.

Immediate Economic Impacts Projected

Agricultural output is projected to fall between $30 and $60 billion if mass deportation policies are fully carried out, according to the American Business Immigration Coalition. This reflects the magnitude of potential disruption to food production systems.

Policy Uncertainty and Reversals

The situation remains fluid with conflicting signals from the current administration. President Trump announced that "changes are coming" to protect farmers from losing workers to deportation campaigns, but no such policy changes are underway according to administration sources. The Department of Homeland Security reversed guidance that exempted farms, hotels and restaurants from immigration raids, creating further uncertainty.

Real-World Impacts Already Emerging

Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have already arrested more than 70 people at a meatpacking plant in Omaha and targeted farms north of Los Angeles. Farmers from California to Nebraska have shuttered operations in the wake of raids that removed dozens of workers.

Historical Context and Long-term Trends

The number of new immigrants arriving to work in agriculture has already fallen by 75% in recent years, leading to major labor shortages and rising wages that make it difficult for growers to stay in business or expand.

Technology Response

Reducing immigrant labor availability will increase costs and eventually drive technological innovations that improve farm labor efficiency, including technologies for mechanically harvesting delicate fruits and vegetables.

The agricultural labor situation will likely deteriorate further in the short term, particularly given the sector's current dependence on unauthorized workers and the policy uncertainty around enforcement priorities. However, this pressure may accelerate adoption of automation technologies and force structural changes in how agricultural work is organized and compensated.

If Trump’s immigration policies are making life harder, is ag tech reducing the need for migrant labor for grading and harvest jobs? I had a conversation with Claude on the recent progress of the sector.