Still struggling... Most US fresh exports to Canada lagging year-ago levels
Because of anti-Trump sentiments in Canada, common wisdom says U.S. fresh exports have suffered.
I asked AI thinkster Claude to look at U.S. fresh exports to Canada in April only, (the most recent data), compared with 2024 and previous years.
First, what were the top five U.S. exports to Canada in April, and how do those compare with a year ago?
Claude: The top five US fresh produce exports to Canada by volume in April 2025 are led by lettuce at over 24,000 metric tons, followed by potatoes and onions/shallots at around 18,000-20,000 tons each.
The year-over-year comparison reveals mixed results. Cauliflower is the clear winner with a 23% volume increase, making it a bright spot in an otherwise challenging market. However, most of these high-volume exports faced headwinds - lettuce, potatoes, and apples all saw volume declines ranging from 6% to 18%.
What's particularly striking is the price pressure across these major commodity categories. Onions/shallots experienced a devastating 38% price decline despite maintaining volume, while lettuce and cauliflower both saw 19% price drops. Only potatoes managed to achieve both reasonable volume retention and price improvement.
This suggests that while the US maintains strong market share in Canada for these staple produce items, there's significant competitive pressure keeping prices down, possibly from other suppliers or changes in Canadian market dynamics.
US Fresh Produce Exports to Canada: Top Volume Exports and Year-over-Year Analysis
Top 5 US Fresh Produce Exports to Canada by Volume (April 2025)
Lettuce - 24,165.9 MT
Potatoes - 19,770.9 MT
Onions/Shallots - 18,232.7 MT
Cauliflower - 13,344.5 MT
Apples - 11,755.2 MT
Year-over-Year Comparison (2025 vs 2024)
Volume Changes
Lettuce: 24,165.9 MT (2025) vs 25,722.5 MT (2024) = -6% decline
Potatoes: 19,770.9 MT (2025) vs 23,448.1 MT (2024) = -16% decline
Onions/Shallots: 18,232.7 MT (2025) vs 18,276.2 MT (2024) = flat/no change
Cauliflower: 13,344.5 MT (2025) vs 10,878.2 MT (2024) = +23% increase
Apples: 11,755.2 MT (2025) vs 14,350.7 MT (2024) = -18% decline
Unit Value Changes
Lettuce: $1,689.8/MT (2025) vs $2,091.5/MT (2024) = -19% decline
Potatoes: $522.4/MT (2025) vs $477.2/MT (2024) = +9% increase
Onions/Shallots: $693.6/MT (2025) vs $1,121.5/MT (2024) = -38% decline
Cauliflower: $1,363.2/MT (2025) vs $1,675.3/MT (2024) = -19% decline
Apples: $1,158.9/MT (2025) vs $1,144.3/MT (2024) = +1% increase
Key Insights
Strong Performers
Cauliflower is the standout success story with a 23% volume increase, despite a 19% price decline
Potatoes maintained strong volumes with improved pricing (+9% unit value)
Challenging Markets
Lettuce faces a double challenge: 6% volume decline and 19% price drop
Onions/Shallots saw dramatic 38% price decline while maintaining volume
Apples experienced significant volume decline (-18%) but stable pricing
Market Implications
Four of the top five volume exports experienced price declines, suggesting:
Competitive pressure in Canadian markets
Possible oversupply conditions
Shift toward value-oriented purchasing by Canadian buyers
What were the commodities with the largest declines, April 2025 compared with April 2024?
Claude: Looking at this US-Canada fresh produce trade data for April, I can identify the commodities with the largest declines in 2025 compared to 2024. Let me analyze both unit value and quantity changes.
US Fresh Produce Exports to Canada: Largest Declines in 2025 vs 2024
Commodities with Largest Unit Value Declines
Top 5 by Percentage Decline:
Other Citrus - declined 49% (from $2,045.1 to $1,050.7 per MT)
Onions/Shallots - declined 38% (from $1,121.5 to $693.6 per MT)
Tomatoes - declined 33% (from $2,052.0 to $1,379.3 per MT)
Grapes - declined 29% (from $3,997.3 to $2,851.4 per MT)
Peaches - declined 23% (from $4,506.2 to $3,485.5 per MT)
Commodities with Largest Quantity Declines
Top 5 by Percentage Decline:
Peaches - declined 61% (from 158.3 to 62.1 MT)
Mushrooms - declined 59% (from 170.0 to 70.1 MT)
Cucumbers - declined 57% (from 946.2 to 407.8 MT)
Pears - declined 51% (from 998.5 to 484.4 MT)
Plums - declined 49% (from 119.4 to 60.7 MT)
Notable Patterns
Severe Double Declines (Both Price and Volume Down Significantly)
Peaches: -23% unit value, -61% quantity
Tomatoes: -33% unit value, -30% quantity
Grapes: -29% unit value, but +84% quantity (interesting reversal)
Other Citrus: -49% unit value, -43% quantity
High-Value Crops Hit Hard
Several premium commodities experienced significant unit value declines:
Other Citrus fruits saw nearly half their value per ton disappear
Onions/Shallots dropped from over $1,100/MT to under $700/MT
Fresh tomatoes lost a third of their unit value
Volume Collapses
Some crops saw dramatic quantity reductions:
Peaches and mushrooms both lost nearly 60% of their export volumes
Cucumbers, pears, and plums all declined by roughly half
Market Context
The data suggests potential challenges in the US-Canada fresh produce trade, with many commodities experiencing either price pressures, volume declines, or both. This could indicate:
Increased competition from other suppliers
Changes in Canadian demand patterns
Seasonal or weather-related production issues
Currency or trade policy impacts
Finally, I ask, are consumers in Canada still boycotting U.S. produce now?
Claude: Yes, Canadian consumers are still actively boycotting U.S. products, including produce, as of June 2025. This boycott began in response to the tariffs imposed by President Trump in early 2025 and has continued to grow stronger.
According to recent polling and market data, the boycott is quite significant:
A third of Canadian respondents said they were entirely boycotting U.S.-made products, regardless of availability or price SlateCBC as of March 2025. More recently, 71% of Canadian consumers report they will buy fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025 according to data from dunnhumby.
The boycott has strong political support, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calling on Canadians to "choose Canadian products and services rather than American ones" wherever possible WikipediaNewsweek in February 2025.
For produce specifically, the boycott faces some practical challenges. Canada remains dependent on California and Arizona for spinach, celery, broccoli, cauliflower and cabbage Is it effective to boycott U.S. products? Evidence is mixed, but here’s what you can do to shop more Canadian - The Globe and Mail, especially during winter months when fresh produce cannot be grown domestically in Canada's climate.
However, Canadian retailers are adapting by highlighting domestic alternatives. Some Canadian supermarket chains have added "Made in British Columbia" labels in aisles indicating which goods were produced at home NBC NewsSupermarketnews, and barcode scanning apps have popped up in Canada to help customers avoid American products in grocery stores.
The boycott appears to be having real economic impact, with some Canadian grocery store owners pulling American products from their stores and seeing drops in sales for remaining U.S. products.