Grok: Looking at consumer food expenditures

I asked Grok to examine the latest USDA report on food expenditures…

Grok: Based on the provided data from 1997 to 2024, here are the key trends in consumer expenditures for food in the U.S., focusing on food-at-home and food-away-from-home categories (all values in millions of nominal U.S. dollars, including taxes and tips):

Food-at-Home Expenditures

Overall Growth: Total food-at-home expenditures grew steadily from $362,948.41 in 1997 to $1,091,166.63 in 2024, a roughly 3-fold increase over 27 years, reflecting inflation, population growth, and changing consumer habits.

Grocery Stores Dominate: Food sales at grocery stores consistently accounted for the largest share, rising from $268,884.06 (74% of total food-at-home) in 1997 to $587,224.31 (54% of total) in 2024. Despite the dominant share, its proportion of total food-at-home spending declined as other channels grew.

Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters Surge: Expenditures at warehouse clubs and supercenters saw significant growth, from $25,013.37 (6.9%) in 1997 to $252,920.50 (23.2%) in 2024, driven by the rise of retailers like Costco and Walmart.

Mail Order and Home Delivery Boom: This category experienced the fastest growth, especially post-2020, rising from $9,814.83 (2.7%) in 1997 to $100,485.55 (9.2%) in 2024. The sharp increase from $67,504.12 in 2020 to $100,485.55 in 2024 reflects the pandemic-driven shift to online grocery shopping.

Convenience Stores Stagnate: Convenience store food sales remained relatively flat, growing modestly from $8,913.39 in 1997 to $15,861.79 in 2024, with a peak of $17,311.18 in 2022. Their share of food-at-home spending dropped from 2.5% to 1.5%.

Other Notable Trends:

"Other stores and foodservice" grew from $35,960.39 to $100,222.03, indicating diversification in retail channels.

Direct food sales by farmers, manufacturers, and wholesalers increased from $4,117.00 to $8,898.71, but remained a small fraction (0.8% in 2024).

Home food production and donations rose from $1,127.42 to $4,377.79, reflecting growing interest in home gardening and local food systems.

Food-Away-from-Home Expenditures

Strong Growth: Total food-away-from-home expenditures increased from $335,691.56 in 1997 to $1,538,501.38 in 2024, a 4.6-fold increase, outpacing food-at-home growth due to rising dining-out trends and higher restaurant prices.

Restaurants Lead: Full-service restaurants grew from $120,780.61 (36% of food-away-from-home) in 1997 to $546,583.50 (35.5%) in 2024, while limited-service restaurants (e.g., fast food) saw even stronger growth, from $112,401.51 (33.5%) to $548,853.44 (35.7%), reflecting the rise of quick-service dining.

-Other Channels Grow:

Food sales at hotels and motels surged from $16,131.31 to $54,762.07, driven by tourism and business travel recovery.

Recreational places (e.g., stadiums, theaters) grew from $11,781.64 to $46,760.67, indicating increased spending on experiential dining.

Schools and colleges saw fluctuations, peaking at $81,353.62 in 2024, likely due to increased campus dining post-COVID.

Pandemic Impact: A notable dip occurred in 2020 ($930,723.81) due to restaurant closures, with a sharp recovery by 2023 ($1,462,816.25) as dining restrictions eased.

Key Observations

Shift to Convenience and Value: The growth in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and mail-order/home delivery reflects consumer preference for convenience, bulk buying, and online shopping, accelerated by the pandemic.

Dining Out Gains Share: Food-away-from-home expenditures grew faster than food-at-home, increasing from 48% of total food spending in 1997 to 58.5% in 2024, driven by cultural shifts toward eating out and higher restaurant costs.

Inflation and Economic Pressures: The 2020-2024 period saw accelerated growth in both categories, aligning with the reported 0.6% food-at-home CPI increase in August 2025, reflecting inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges.